Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026. The projection comes as Serbian exporters face growing demands to document emissions alongside meeting conventional price and delivery terms, with the quality and timing of that information affecting their ability to supply EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the European Union. In 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes represented €111.23 billion of extra-EU imports by border value. That total includes imports from exempt source countries and is not the value of CBAM certificates owed; after exempt origins are removed, about €94.74 billion remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
Iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion and aluminium for €30.34 billion of the EU’s 2025 imports covered by those codes. Serbia is not a leading origin in the aggregate, but its trade is concentrated in corridors connecting Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets. Its immediate exposure is narrower, involving metals, electricity and other covered products shipped from Serbian producers and traders into the EU.
Exposure extends beyond large producers
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected, while more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to covered sectors. Those industries account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, extending compliance concerns across manufacturing rather than limiting them to a few large producers.
The ministry’s baseline scenario estimates exposure will rise to €161.4 million in 2029. Its 2026 estimate comprises €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity. The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. They are projections, not recorded tax receipts or invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Emissions data enters contract negotiations
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants carry the formal reporting and certificate obligations. Commercial costs can nevertheless be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts and contract clauses, or forward to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers. Suppliers therefore face commercial pressure to give buyers usable emissions information, even though they are not the parties with the formal CBAM obligations.
Negotiations will depend on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains and whether importers can source goods with lower embedded carbon elsewhere. For Serbian steel, metalworking and power businesses, the central commercial question is whether they can retain EU customers, rather than whether Serbia can influence the wider EU carbon market.
EU buyers must submit their first annual declaration for imports made in 2026 and surrender the associated certificates by September 30, 2027. Serbian suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
Plants that cannot provide the required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. A lower-carbon production route has commercial value only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the EU importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer