Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates the country’s 2026 exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at €140.2 million, with iron and steel carrying the largest estimated cost. Electricity accounts for €21.8 million and is subject to different compliance rules, so Serbia’s exposure does not mirror the mix of EU imports covered by the mechanism.
EU import-value figures for 2025 show that steel and aluminium together represented 82.1% of imports of CBAM-coded goods. The EU’s emissions-based import regime covers goods including iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity; steel and aluminium were its dominant commercial categories in 2025.
CBAM-coded steel imports into the EU were valued at €60.95 billion and aluminium at €30.34 billion, for a combined €91.29 billion. Imports of all CBAM-coded goods were valued at €111.23 billion. The 82.1% measure covers imports from all non-EU origins, including exempt suppliers, and is not the share of Serbian exports covered by CBAM.
Serbia’s exposure includes power exports
The Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM scope. Its 2026 baseline assessment puts iron and steel exposure at €89.1 million, electricity at €21.8 million and aluminium at €19.5 million. Cement and fertilisers account for the remainder.
Serbia’s 2024 export composition provides a separate measure: steel represented 4.5 percentage points of exports to the EU, aluminium 2.0 points and electricity 4.7 points. The CBAM-related share was approximately 11.7%, with metals representing roughly 56% of that share. These figures use a different year and denominator from the EU’s 2025 import values and should not be treated as interchangeable annual rankings.
Steel producers carry Serbia’s largest estimated cost, while electricity is also an important part of trade with the EU. The compliance and commercial considerations for a coated-steel coil destined for a processor differ from those for a megawatt-hour of Serbian electricity entering Hungary’s power system.
Emissions data and product codes affect costs
For covered steel items, the CBAM charge is not a simple surcharge on invoice value. It depends on a plant’s direct process emissions, verified production route, eligible input materials and the EU free-allocation adjustment. Importers may use regulatory default values when actual emissions data are unavailable; the Ministry of Finance has warned that default factors may exceed actual domestic emissions in some cases, potentially penalising lower-emission Serbian installations unable to substantiate their performance.
The initial 2026 emissions scope for covered aluminium products concentrates on direct emissions. Producers may nevertheless face commercial pressure to disclose electricity sources and indirect footprints for customers’ decarbonisation strategies. A buyer’s preference for low-carbon electricity may go beyond emissions included in the legal CBAM certificate calculation, and the two should not be conflated in pricing.
Serbian producers compete with suppliers from China, Türkiye and India, as well as lower-carbon plants inside the EU. Retaining customers depends on actual emissions, data assurance and product economics for the relevant CN8 code, not on the EU-wide metals share alone.
Serbia’s identified immediate policy priorities are to establish a credible plant-level steel emissions baseline, map mill products accurately to EU customs codes and treat electricity trade separately. A single approach would not account for the different requirements of a steel product and a unit of electricity traded across the border.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer