Commercially scheduled electricity exchanges across borders between Western Balkan markets and EU member states fell 25% in the first quarter, as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) made evidence for actual-emissions treatment a key commercial issue for regional power exports. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the decline. It also reported that day-ahead prices in Energy Community contracting parties averaged €30/MWh below prices in neighbouring EU markets.
The lower exchanges and price gap came despite strong hydropower availability. Exports from Albania, whose default electricity emission factor was zero, continued, while comparable hydropower exports from markets such as Montenegro were sharply constrained. The reported correlations indicate a changed commercial environment but do not show that CBAM alone caused movements in flows or prices. Hydrology, transmission constraints, market arrangements and fuel costs also affect electricity trading.
Evidence determines import treatment
Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Albania have different generation mixes, network configurations and market-coupling trajectories. For exporters, the central issue is whether evidence for actual-emissions treatment can support a specific electricity import into the EU. Guarantees of origin, power-purchase agreements and generation measurements may document renewable output, but need to connect to the legally required physical-trade and verification documentation.
Without that evidentiary chain, an EU importer may face country-level default emissions values even for low-emission generation. Renewable generation alone does not automatically secure favourable import treatment. The difference between electricity traded and electricity that can be proven compliant under CBAM is therefore a material commercial variable for cross-border sales.
EU methodology changes remain pending
The EU is considering changes to its electricity methodology as part of a broader CBAM downstream and anti-circumvention legislative package. The Council set its position in June 2026, and the European Parliament adopted amendments in September 2026. Final agreement was still pending in early November 2026, leaving power traders to price under the current regime while preparing to respond to possible revisions on nomination, physical connection and market integration.
Cross-border electricity sales can affect wholesale price spreads, producer revenues, the competitiveness of industrial electricity buyers and the financeability of renewable projects. A credible regional dataset should record day-ahead prices, border capacities, nomination volumes, actual generation by technology, default emissions and documented CBAM treatment. It should also connect the EU importer to any identifiable industrial off-taker.