Gross scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 17.8% in January–September 2026, while regional day-ahead trading grew, according to the Energy Community Secretariat’s third-quarter 2026 assessment. The report covers electricity trading in the quarter and compares the first nine months of 2026 with the corresponding period in 2025. Carbon-related costs are adding to the conditions shaping electricity transactions with the European Union.
Regional trading grows as exchanges remain lower
Scheduled exchanges were 14.3% lower year on year in the third quarter, although they recovered 8.6% from the previous quarter. Day-ahead volumes on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh, up 26.7% year on year. The expansion in activity on the four organised electricity markets contrasted with lower scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets.
Across eight Western Balkan–EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. The assessment’s figures show wider spreads, but those alone do not establish that cross-border sales are commercially attractive after carbon obligations and delivery costs are considered.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The actual cost of electricity imports depends on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Traders’ calculations increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. A wholesale price spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer provide an attractive commercial margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
Export movements differ by route
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. On the Montenegro–Italy route, scheduled exports increased approximately 80%, according to the assessment.
The different movements show that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows independently of other factors. Generation, demand, hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also influence exchanges. Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected commercial variables.
For Western Balkan generators, the assessment points to a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and output that can economically reach EU customers. A potential structural discount may affect exporting markets with carbon-intensive generation mixes, or where low-carbon production does not meet the requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
The changes observed cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM: generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity also affect trading patterns. For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the stated challenge is preserving efficient electricity trade as carbon rules can determine whether cross-border transactions are profitable.