Scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 14.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, while regional day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7%. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the figures in its third-quarter 2026 assessment. The assessment covers January to September and compares activity with the corresponding periods in 2025.
Across the first nine months of 2026, gross scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets declined 17.8% year on year. In the third quarter, exchanges increased 8.6% compared with the previous quarter, but remained below the same quarter of 2025. Day-ahead trading on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh during the quarter, according to the assessment.
Regional market activity versus scheduled EU cross-border flows
The Secretariat said the data point to organised-market activity in the region expanding while scheduled exchanges with the EU stayed below 2025 levels. It also stated that changes in trading cannot be attributed exclusively to CBAM. Generation patterns, demand conditions, hydrology and available interconnection capacity were cited as additional factors affecting cross-border flows.
Price spreads and export movements across Western Balkans-EU pairs
Across eight Western Balkan-EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours. This compared with 21.7% of hours a year earlier. The assessment said a wholesale price spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may not generate an attractive margin once applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Montenegro’s scheduled exports to Italy increased by approximately 80%. The Secretariat said these differing movements indicate that CBAM exposure does not alone determine commercial flows, with hydrology, trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also playing roles.
CBAM-related inputs in import cost calculations
The assessment said traders’ calculations increasingly need to compare EU wholesale revenues with procurement costs, transmission charges, losses and balancing exposure, alongside CBAM-related liabilities. It added that actual electricity-import costs depend on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions. Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics were described as increasingly interconnected variables for cross-border trade.
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at EUR 82.32/t CO2, up from EUR 75.28/t CO2 in the second quarter. The Commission’s certificate price and the applicable emissions methodology were identified as factors relevant to electricity import costs, together with eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Potential pricing differentiation for generators exporting into the EU
The Secretariat said Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity sold domestically or regionally and electricity sold profitably to EU customers. It noted that a potential structural discount could emerge in exporting markets where generation is carbon-intensive or where low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the assessment identified the challenge as preserving efficient electricity trade while adapting to a market where regulatory treatment of carbon can determine whether a cross-border transaction is profitable.