Serbia’s export model is undergoing a visible shift. Electric vehicles, copper, manufacturing and tradable services are becoming more important just as electricity exports face new pressure from carbon-border rules and weaker hydrology.
The clearest symbol of the transition is Stellantis’s Kragujevac plant. Exports of motor vehicles increased 51.1% year on year in the first half of 2026, when production of the Fiat Grande Panda and partly the Citroën C3 was substantially higher than during the ramp-up period a year earlier. The NBS estimates that motor vehicles accounted for close to three-quarters of the total increase in goods exports.
The wider automotive cluster now represents close to 20% of Serbian merchandise exports, up from 15.7% in 2025 and around 12-13% only several years earlier. That is a material change in the composition of the country’s trade account.
Production data confirm the export figures. Motor-vehicle manufacturing increased 43.3% year on year in Q2, contributing to a 3.3% rise in manufacturing output. The NBS expects electric-vehicle production in Kragujevac to increase further as capacity utilisation rises.
Mining provides a second major export driver. First-half mining exports increased 34.7%, helped by a nearly 40% year-on-year increase in the global copper price. In Q2 alone, mining exports were up around 30.3%. That performance strengthened Serbia’s external account even as energy imports became more expensive.
The manufacturing base is broader than autos. Total manufacturing exports increased 9.0% in the first half, with growth in 15 of 23 branches. Metal products contributed about 1.1 percentage points to export growth, rubber and plastics 0.7 points, and computers and electronics, basic metals and chemicals roughly 0.4 points each.
Services are developing in parallel. In Q2, Serbia generated a €703mn surplus in services trade. Service exports increased 10.9% year on year, with ICT and business services providing the largest contribution. Imports rose 6.8%.
This combination is changing the way Serbia absorbs shocks. The country’s current-account deficit fell by around 30% in the first half despite a worsening energy balance because export growth increasingly comes from several distinct sectors rather than a narrow commodity or low-value manufacturing base.
The transition is not uniformly positive. Electricity production fell 8.8% year on year in Q2, and electricity exports dropped approximately 45%, partly as producers adapted to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, and partly because lower hydropower availability reduced domestic generation.
The NBS explicitly identifies CBAM as a constraint on the energy sector. It also notes potential pressure from announced EU steel-import quotas. For now, the bank does not expect these factors to create a large negative effect on overall net exports, but they represent an important structural change for carbon-intensive producers.
The contrast between EV exports and electricity exports captures Serbia’s changing relationship with EU climate policy. One side of the economy is benefiting from the European transition towards electrified transport. Another is facing higher carbon-related trade costs.
This creates significant investment requirements in energy. The NBS expects a gradual recovery in electricity and mining activity in later years, supported by structural reforms and expansion of renewable-generation capacity.
For manufacturing, stronger EV production provides a potential buffer against weak European demand. The report notes that overall external demand in Europe remains soft but that electric-vehicle registrations increased 40.5% year on year in the first half, supporting expectations of stronger utilisation at Kragujevac.
The result is a more complex export economy. Automotive production is increasing rapidly, metals and mining are benefiting from investment and commodity prices, and business and ICT services are growing without the same physical-import intensity as goods production.
That composition also changes the current-account outlook for 2027. The NBS expects Expo-related tourism and business services to push net exports into positive territory, contributing around 0.7 percentage points to GDP growth next year.
Serbia is therefore moving towards an export model in which tradable services and higher-value manufacturing carry more of the growth burden, while traditional energy exports face tougher regulatory economics.
The shift is still exposed to concentration risk. Stellantis has become highly important to incremental export growth, making plant utilisation and European EV demand disproportionately relevant. Copper prices can reverse. ICT and business services depend on labour availability and international demand.
Yet the broader pattern is clear in the first-half data. The current-account improvement was not produced by a collapse in imports alone. It was supported by a genuine increase in export capacity.
The emerging Serbian export story is less about selling more electricity and more about electric cars, copper, components, business services and ICT. CBAM is accelerating that transition by making the economics of carbon-intensive exports progressively more demanding.