2030–2035 scenario annex: Gas prices, CBAM and export margins Read More »

2030–2035 scenario annex: Gas prices, CBAM and export margins

Scenario one: High volatility, tight LNG markets In a scenario characterised by global LNG tightness, regulatory uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical risk, European gas prices remain volatile with frequent spikes. Average prices may moderate, but extreme events become more common. Under this scenario, Serbian exporters without flexibility face chronic margin pressure. Steel and ceramics suffer the […]

Gas vs electricity procurement: Strategic choices fo Serbian exporters Read More »

Gas vs electricity procurement: Strategic choices fo Serbian exporters

Serbian exporters increasingly face a strategic choice: treat gas and electricity as separate procurement streams or integrate them into a unified energy risk strategy. The latter approach is rapidly becoming essential. Gas procurement indexed fully to TTF offers flexibility but exposes companies to extreme volatility. Electricity procurement based on short-term wholesale markets compounds this risk

Sector-by-sector gas cost sensitivity in Serbian export industries Read More »

Sector-by-sector gas cost sensitivity in Serbian export industries

Steel: Gas as a volatility multiplier rather than a fuel cost In Serbia’s steel industry, gas sensitivity manifests less through average cost levels and more through volatility transmission. Gas is used directly for heating and indirectly via electricity consumption in rolling, casting, and finishing processes. While gas may represent a minority share of total energy

Gas markets as a structural cost driver for Serbian exporters Read More »

Gas markets as a structural cost driver for Serbian exporters

Natural gas has shifted from a relatively predictable industrial input to a structurally volatile cost driver across European markets. For Serbian exporters supplying the EU, gas price dynamics now shape not only operating costs, but also contract structures, risk allocation, and long-term competitiveness. Unlike the pre-2020 period, when long-term pipeline contracts smoothed price volatility, today’s

Electricity prices, production costs, and export competitiveness: What Serbian manufacturers face when selling into the EU Read More »

Electricity prices, production costs, and export competitiveness: What Serbian manufacturers face when selling into the EU

Electricity pricing has shifted from a background cost to a central competitive variable for Serbian export-oriented production. For companies selling into the European Union, power prices now influence operating margins, contract structure, carbon exposure, and long-term bankability. This is no longer theoretical; it is already embedded in buyer behavior, procurement models, and compliance frameworks. To

What the European gas market means for Serbia-based producers and exporters Read More »

What the European gas market means for Serbia-based producers and exporters

The European natural gas market has moved decisively away from its pre-2020 equilibrium. Price formation, supply security, and cost competitiveness are no longer primarily dictated by long-term contracts and pipeline marginal costs. Instead, they are shaped by a volatile interplay of LNG pricing, financial hedging, regulatory overlays, and gas-power coupling. For Serbia-based companies producing gas,

Oil market prices, cost trends and export economics for Serbian producers targeting the EU market Read More »

Oil market prices, cost trends and export economics for Serbian producers targeting the EU market

By 2030, Serbian exporters will no longer focus on whether global oil prices are “high” or “low,” but on whether delivered cost structures remain competitive once energy, carbon, logistics, and compliance are fully incorporated into EU-bound exports. Serbia does not compete as an upstream crude producer; it competes as a downstream processor, producing petroleum products,

Policy without borders: How Montenegro–Italy coupling constrains domestic energy intervention Read More »

Policy without borders: How Montenegro–Italy coupling constrains domestic energy intervention

Electricity market coupling is often discussed in technical or commercial terms, but its most profound effects are political. By linking Montenegro’s market directly to Italy’s, coupling effectively removes the border as a buffer between domestic energy policy and European price formation. This fundamentally constrains the scope for unilateral intervention in the power sector. Before coupling,

Fragmented convergence: Why Southeast Europe will not integrate into one electricity market Read More »

Fragmented convergence: Why Southeast Europe will not integrate into one electricity market

For much of the past decade, the dominant assumption shaping policy and market design in Southeast Europe has been that electricity market integration would follow a linear path. National markets would first converge regionally, harmonising rules and price formation across the Balkans, and only then gradually integrate into the wider European internal electricity market. The

error: Content is protected !!
Scroll to Top