Can Serbia move from assembly manufacturing to high-value industrial production? Read More »

Can Serbia move from assembly manufacturing to high-value industrial production?

Serbia’s industrial model in 2025 showed both its strength and its ceiling. The strength is visible in exports, where manufacturing generated 87.6% of total foreign sales, total exports reached €33.068 billion, and total trade turnover climbed to €74.927 billion. The ceiling is visible in the structure behind those numbers: manufacturing output increased only 1.1%, overall […]

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The global steel industry is entering a new regulatory and economic era as the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) begins transforming how industrial emissions are tracked, reported, and priced in international trade. Initially perceived by many companies outside the EU as another environmental reporting requirement, the system is proving far more consequential. For

Power and metals: Why electricity prices will decide Europe’s new refining industry Read More »

Power and metals: Why electricity prices will decide Europe’s new refining industry

Europe’s attempt to rebuild domestic supply chains for lithium, rare earths and battery metals is often described as a race to secure raw materials. Yet the decisive factor shaping where the continent’s new refining plants will actually be built may not be geology at all. It may be electricity. Across lithium conversion facilities, copper refineries,

Industrial electricity procurement under CBAM: Renewable sourcing strategies and competitive positioning in CSEE Read More »

Industrial electricity procurement under CBAM: Renewable sourcing strategies and competitive positioning in CSEE

The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is rapidly transforming the strategic landscape for industrial electricity procurement across Central and South-East Europe. While CBAM is frequently discussed as a trade measure targeting the carbon intensity of imported commodities, its deeper impact lies in the way it reshapes electricity sourcing strategies for export-oriented industrial

CBAM and the EU emissions trading system: Structural implications for power markets in CSEE Read More »

CBAM and the EU emissions trading system: Structural implications for power markets in CSEE

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) represents one of the most consequential structural reforms of the continent’s climate policy architecture since the creation of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). While CBAM is often described primarily as a trade policy instrument designed to prevent carbon leakage, its interaction with the EU ETS

Renewables, PPAs and Guarantees of Origin: Serbia’s 1.5 TWh CBAM electricity challenge Read More »

Renewables, PPAs and Guarantees of Origin: Serbia’s 1.5 TWh CBAM electricity challenge

Serbia’s quantified exporter green-electricity gap of 0.4–1.4 TWh per year is best treated as a build programme with a proof layer, not as a policy slogan. The number matters because it represents the volume of electricity that CBAM-exposed exporters would need to cover with traceable renewable attributes—in practice, Guarantees of Origin that can be assigned

Serbia’s CBAM electricity constraint: Company-level green power demand, attribute scarcity and the new logic of exporter-anchored renewables Read More »

Serbia’s CBAM electricity constraint: Company-level green power demand, attribute scarcity and the new logic of exporter-anchored renewables

Serbia’s CBAM exposure is often discussed as if it were a reporting problem that sits inside customs paperwork and corporate sustainability departments. In reality, from 2026 onward, it behaves more like a competitiveness tax on industrial systems that cannot credibly separate themselves from a coal-heavy electricity baseline. That is the Serbian problem in its simplest

CBAM pressure on Serbia’s electricity exports and RES producers, and the industrial case for owning green power Read More »

CBAM pressure on Serbia’s electricity exports and RES producers, and the industrial case for owning green power

From 1 January 2026, electricity imported into the EU from Energy Community Contracting Parties is explicitly within CBAM’s scope, creating an administrative and financial layer on cross-border power flows that did not previously exist.  For Serbia, this matters in a very specific way: the CBAM exposure on electricity is not driven by what a single

CBAM and Serbia’s industrial crossroads: Export exposure, renewable power constraints and the prospect of green metals by 2030 Read More »

CBAM and Serbia’s industrial crossroads: Export exposure, renewable power constraints and the prospect of green metals by 2030

The European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has begun reshaping the competitive landscape for heavy industry across Europe’s neighboring economies. For Serbia, whose industrial base remains closely integrated with EU manufacturing supply chains, the new carbon border policy introduces both immediate trade risks and long-term structural incentives to modernize production and energy systems. From

CBAM and the Serbian banking sector: Credit risk transmission, pricing and strategic reallocation Read More »

CBAM and the Serbian banking sector: Credit risk transmission, pricing and strategic reallocation

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is not a regulation addressed to banks, yet for the Serbian banking sector it has become a material risk factor that is already influencing credit decisions, portfolio composition, and capital allocation. CBAM operates formally at the EU border, but its economic impact propagates upstream through exporters, industrial clients,

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