The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, up from €75.28 in the second quarter. The higher reference price adds to working-capital and hedging questions for companies importing CBAM goods ahead of their first certificate purchases.
The price was €75.36 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent in the first quarter of 2026. CBAM certificate prices are derived from auction prices in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), linking movements in the European carbon market to the eventual cost of industrial imports.
Importers incur CBAM obligations on goods imported during 2026, but purchases through the common central platform are scheduled to begin in February 2027. Their first annual CBAM declarations and certificate surrender are due by 30 September 2027, requiring companies to estimate liabilities before final cash settlement. Importers must decide whether anticipated costs should be reflected in sales prices, credit lines or commercial guarantees.
The amount due depends on import volumes, verified or default emissions, free-allocation adjustments and any eligible deduction for a carbon price paid in the country of origin. Emissions can vary between installations or production batches even when metal purchase contracts specify quantities in tonnes. Cancellations, deferred deliveries or substitute supplies can also change a company’s projected certificate requirement.
An EU emissions allowance futures contract is not an exact hedge for a specific CBAM liability. EU ETS instruments may help manage the general carbon-price component, but basis differences, timing and calculation risks remain. Treasury teams should understand those mismatches rather than assume a one-for-one position eliminates exposure.
For trade finance, banks should seek regular reconciliation of imports and emissions instead of relying on a single carbon-cost estimate prepared at the start of a contract. Importers can use quarterly forecasts, supplier verification, approved price assumptions and explicit pass-through clauses. Finance teams should also stress-test high and low carbon-price scenarios, delayed documentation and changes in supply origin.
For large metals and fertiliser importers, the aim is to avoid an unexpected cash requirement in 2027 while retaining flexibility to compete for customers across an uncertain industrial cycle. 30 September 2027 is the deadline for the first annual declarations and certificate surrender.