Scheduled electricity exchanges between the Western Balkans Six and neighbouring EU markets fell 14.3% year on year in the third quarter of 2026, while regional day-ahead trading volumes rose 26.7%. The Energy Community Secretariat reported the figures in its third-quarter 2026 assessment, covering January to September and comparing activity with the corresponding periods in 2025.
Gross scheduled exchanges with neighbouring EU markets declined 17.8% over the first nine months. In the third quarter, they rose 8.6% from the previous quarter, but remained below the same period of 2025. Day-ahead trading on SEEPEX, MEPX, ALPEX and MEMO reached approximately 2.97 TWh in the quarter, up 26.7% year on year.
The contrast points to expanding organised-market activity within the region even as scheduled exchanges with the EU remain below 2025 levels. The Secretariat cautioned that the changes cannot be attributed exclusively to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): generation, demand, hydrology and available interconnection capacity also influence trading patterns.
Price gaps and export flows
Across eight Western Balkan-EU electricity price pairs, absolute hourly price differences exceeded €20/MWh in 53.9% of third-quarter 2026 hours, compared with 21.7% a year earlier. A wholesale spread that previously supported cross-border arbitrage may no longer leave an attractive commercial margin after applicable carbon obligations and delivery costs are included.
Scheduled electricity exports from Serbia to Hungary fell 21.6%, despite a wider wholesale price spread between the two markets. Montenegro’s scheduled exports to Italy rose approximately 80%. The different movements underline that CBAM exposure does not determine commercial flows on its own; trading positions, transmission capacity and contractual arrangements also matter alongside hydrology.
Traders’ calculations increasingly need to weigh EU wholesale revenues against procurement costs, transmission charges, losses, balancing exposure and CBAM-related liabilities. Actual electricity-import costs depend on the applicable emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions. Wholesale prices, transmission access and verified carbon characteristics are increasingly interconnected variables in cross-border trade.
Certificate price and carbon data
The European Commission set the third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price at €82.32 per tonne of CO₂, up from €75.28 per tonne in the second quarter. The price is one factor in import-cost calculations, alongside the emissions methodology, eligible deductions and other regulatory conditions.
Western Balkan generators may face a growing distinction between electricity that can be sold domestically or regionally and electricity that can be sold profitably to EU customers. A potential structural discount may emerge in exporting markets where generation is carbon-intensive or low-carbon production cannot meet requirements for recognition of actual emissions.
For Serbia, Montenegro and the wider Western Balkans, the commercial challenge is to preserve efficient electricity trade as carbon treatment becomes more closely linked with wholesale prices and transmission access. Whether a cross-border transaction is profitable also depends on verified carbon characteristics, while the observed trading shifts reflect multiple market factors rather than CBAM alone.