The European Commission has set the EU CBAM certificate price at EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂ for the third quarter of 2026. The figure is higher than EUR 75.28 for the second quarter and EUR 75.36 for the first quarter. The change represents an increase of approximately 9.4% from April-June.
The quarterly adjustment reflects how EU ETS auction prices feed into carbon-cost calculations for imported industrial goods. For manufacturers and importers, the update affects how verified emissions intensity is used in procurement decisions and delivered-cost assessments.
Quarterly reference price linked to qualifying emissions
The published EUR 82.32 rate is not described as a flat charge per tonne of imported steel, aluminium or cement. Instead, it corresponds to the price of a tonne of qualifying carbon emissions used in CBAM calculations.
The number of certificates required depends on embedded emissions and several calculation elements. These include the applicable free-allocation adjustment, the emissions calculation methodology, eligibility for deductions tied to carbon prices paid abroad, and whether the product is within CBAM coverage.
As a result, two shipments of the same product can show different gross carbon exposure if their production processes generate different emissions. The transitional arrangements are also noted as a factor that can keep immediate 2026 liability for industrial imports below the gross value implied by the quarterly reference price.
Emissions intensity drives gross carbon reference values
The relationship between product emissions and the quarterly certificate price can be illustrated using a conversion based on EUR 82.32 per tonne of CO₂. Under that rate, one tonne of qualifying emissions corresponds to a gross carbon reference value of EUR 82.32 before applicable adjustments.
For a production process emitting 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per unit, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16 per unit. At an emissions intensity of 1.5 tonnes, the illustrative value rises to EUR 123.48.
The figures are described as illustrative carbon equivalents rather than final CBAM assessments or payable liabilities. They are used to show how differences in verified production emissions can affect comparisons between suppliers offering similar industrial goods.
Imported electricity uses a different calculation profile
Imported electricity is treated differently from industrial products in relation to free allocation. Imported electricity does not receive the industrial free-allocation adjustment, so the emissions factor attributed to each imported megawatt-hour becomes particularly important.
Using an assumed emissions factor of 0.5 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh, the gross reference value is EUR 41.16/MWh. With an emissions factor of 0.9 tonnes per MWh, the illustrative value becomes EUR 74.09/MWh.
The treatment depends on applicable calculation rules, supporting emissions evidence, and eligible deductions for carbon payments. The generator’s ability to set a lower emissions factor is limited by requirements that must be met, rather than by declarations about actual power emissions alone.
Procurement and documentation based on verified plant data
For procurement teams, differences in carbon intensity between suppliers can be more significant than the headline certificate price alone. At EUR 82.32/tCO₂, an emissions difference of 0.4 tonnes corresponds to a gross carbon-reference difference of EUR 32.93 per unit before adjustments.
If supplier differences are supported by credible installation-level data, it can be used as a basis for supplier negotiations against competing producers. Unsupported or unverified low-carbon claims may leave buyers relying on default emissions values instead.
The role of verified data remains relevant even as free-allocation adjustments moderate industrial CBAM liabilities during the initial phase. The value attributed to lower verified emissions is described as potentially increasing as transition arrangements progress.
Separate gross reference, free allocation and payable obligation
Importers preparing cost comparisons are advised to keep three figures separate: the gross carbon reference value, the applicable free-allocation adjustment, and the estimated payable CBAM obligation. Combining these elements into a single carbon-cost figure can obscure assumptions behind the calculation.
Exporters are also described as needing both actual-emissions and default-value scenarios before agreeing carbon-adjusted delivered prices with EU customers. A facility with reliable actual emissions records and evidence of eligible domestic carbon payments may show lower net exposure than a competitor relying on default values.
A plant with particularly high direct emissions could face a different outcome depending on which scenario applies and what evidence is available for recognition of eligible payments.
Certificate timing tied to shipment date and quarter entry
The timing of certificate purchases affects importer calculations because certificates covering emissions from 2026 imports will become available for purchase from February 2027. The applicable reference price is linked to the quarter in which goods entered the EU.
If companies use a current spot allowance quotation instead of the relevant quarterly CBAM price, they risk applying an incorrect reference to their imports. Accurate shipment dates, customs declarations, and quarter-specific emissions records are therefore needed for maintaining a reliable liability ledger.
For exporters, providing EU customers with installation and product-level emissions information is described as commercially important for supporting calculations. Documentation of eligible carbon payments made in the country of production can also affect net exposure where recognition requirements are met.
Quarterly CBAM series becomes part of industrial pricing inputs
The quarterly CBAM price series is described as becoming an industrial market reference alongside exchange rates, electricity prices and freight costs. While the published price does not determine competitiveness for an individual shipment by itself, it assigns a transparent euro value to qualifying emissions entering the EU import calculation.