European unwrought aluminium flows into the EU have moved sharply around the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism’s financial phase, with a December 2025 surge followed by a steep contraction in early 2026. The pattern is complicating efforts to separate short-term stockpiling from changes in underlying consumption. It is also delaying how far carbon-related costs are reflected in purchasing decisions for metal that is already cleared through customs.
Fastmarkets reported that EU imports of unwrought aluminium from origins subject to CBAM, excluding exempt countries, reached about 675,000 tonnes in December 2025. That level was more than double the typical monthly range of roughly 280,000–360,000 tonnes. After the front-loading, imports fell 79% to 143,000 tonnes in January 2026 before edging up to 183,000 tonnes in February.
The magnitude of the January drop exceeded normal seasonal trading patterns and was concentrated among origins exposed to CBAM default emissions values. While the data point to import timing ahead of the mechanism’s financial phase, they do not confirm that end-user demand disappeared. Metal imported and cleared before the new liability applied can remain in storage and later enter manufacturing supply chains.
Market participants are therefore tracking whether the December volume primarily shifted purchases between reporting periods or supported a longer-term reconfiguration of European aluminium sourcing. This distinction matters for how quickly carbon costs associated with CBAM obligations translate into realised margins for buyers and distributors. It also affects expectations for downstream procurement as inventories move through warehouses.
Shipments from several major suppliers show particularly clear reversals. Canadian deliveries were about 175,000 tonnes in December 2025 but dropped to around 10,000 tonnes in January 2026. Mozambique supplied roughly 105,000 tonnes in December before falling to near zero the next month, while Bahrain declined from about 85,000 tonnes to 19,000 tonnes over the same period.
By contrast, Norwegian and Icelandic aluminium did not follow the same trajectory because those origins fall outside CBAM’s scope due to their regulatory status. The divergence between CBAM-exposed and non-exposed supply sources reinforces the link between import timing and compliance exposure. It also highlights how origin-specific rules can reshape trade flows even when overall industrial demand remains stable.
The timing of customs clearance creates a key operational distinction for market actors. Aluminium cleared before the relevant effective date avoided the new CBAM liability tied to subsequent imports, while replacement shipments entering during 2026 are subject to applicable rules. Importers therefore need to separate inventories acquired before obligations took effect from metal brought in afterwards when assessing margins and future purchasing costs.
This inventory buffer can temporarily slow the transmission of carbon-related costs through the supply chain. Manufacturers may continue consuming lower-cost stocks even as replenishment cargoes become more expensive under the new regime. As a result, cost increases may appear delayed relative to changes in import volumes and certificate pricing.
Premium dynamics so far have been uneven rather than uniformly driven by CBAM alone. Fastmarkets identified only a moderate increase immediately after CBAM began, consistent with availability of inventories accumulated before the end of 2025. However, physical premiums are also influenced by smelter outages, transport expenses, electricity costs, sanctions, regional demand and metal availability.
An increase in a duty-paid premium therefore cannot be attributed entirely to CBAM. The relationship between import costs and selling prices depends on how quickly existing stocks are consumed and how replacement shipments are priced. Differences between acquisition costs for earlier inventories and replenishment costs may become increasingly important for distributors and downstream manufacturers.
On the carbon pricing side, CBAM certificate reference values continued to move during 2026. The third-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate reference price rose to €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent from €75.28 in the second quarter. For aluminium under the current framework, obligations primarily cover direct embedded emissions along with specific rules for precursor materials.
Indirect emissions from purchased electricity are not charged under the aluminium mechanism in the same way as direct emissions. The final liability also depends on benchmark adjustments and permitted deductions for carbon prices paid abroad, meaning the quarterly reference price alone is insufficient to calculate total carbon cost for a shipment. Compliance calculations therefore require shipment-level assumptions beyond certificate reference values.
Downstream risks may emerge as pre-2026 stocks run down and contracts negotiated around lower-cost inventory reach maturity. Purchasing agreements structured around existing supplies could face timing pressure when new deliveries carry CBAM liabilities. Distributors that set fixed selling prices without provisions to recover verified carbon-related costs may see margin pressure as replenishment expenses rise.
Over coming months, import volumes, warehouse inventory levels and the origin mix of replacement shipments will be central to assessing whether December’s surge reflected temporary reporting-period shifts or a more durable restructuring of European aluminium sourcing. Taken together with certificate reference price movements and shipment-level liability mechanics, the early-2026 trade reversal suggests that carbon-cost pass-through is likely to remain uneven until inventory buffers are exhausted.