Eurostat’s analysis published on March 26, 2025 shows that EU imports of aluminium and articles thereof under HS Chapter 76 reached €29.5 billion in 2024. Exports were €18.4 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of €11.1 billion. The figures cover a wide range of aluminium products rather than only goods classified under CBAM-specific product codes.
On an import-value basis for 2024, Norway was the largest supplier with €4.4 billion or 15.0% of the total. China accounted for €3.9 billion (13.1%), Türkiye for €2.8 billion (9.4%), Iceland for €2.1 billion (7.3%) and Switzerland for €1.7 billion (5.8%). Together, these five countries represented approximately 50.6% of the import value recorded under Chapter 76.
Origin exemptions under EU rules affect CBAM exposure
Goods originating in Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland are exempt from CBAM under applicable EU rules, reflecting their relevant emissions-trading arrangements. As a result, the import shares of Norway, Iceland and Switzerland carry different implications for potential certificate liabilities than those of China or Türkiye.
The exemption depends on legally established non-preferential origin rather than routing alone. Simply moving goods through an exempt territory does not automatically confer exempt status.
CN product codes and downstream classifications shape trade analysis
Product classification is also central to assessing trade data against CBAM coverage. CN 76011010 covers slabs of unwrought non-alloy aluminium, CN 76011090 covers other unwrought non-alloy aluminium, and CN 76012080 covers certain unwrought aluminium alloys.
The analysis requires more than aggregate HS Chapter 76 statistics because downstream products need separate classification and production-route assessments. That includes sheet, foil, extrusions and other fabricated articles, while certain scrap categories are excluded or treated differently, including under proposed reforms.
Cambers between import values and physical volumes
Eurostat compared 2019 and 2024 and found that the value of EU aluminium imports rose by 29.9%. Over the same period, physical weight declined by 6.2%.
The divergence shows that higher customs values do not necessarily correspond to higher imported tonnage. Global aluminium prices, product composition, exchange rates and trading conditions can raise aggregate import values without increasing physical volumes.
Certain unit-value comparisons can only be interpreted when based on sufficiently comparable product categories. Customs unit values expressed in euros per tonne are therefore meaningful only when calculated for categories with comparable characteristics.
Matched CN8 data are needed for monthly market-share tracking
A Eurostat general merchandise-trade release dated October 16, 2026 covered August extra-EU imports but did not provide a detailed aluminium country-share matrix for monthly movements. Without that matrix, changes in sector shares cannot be derived reliably from aggregate trade figures alone.
A robust approach would compare August 2026 with both July 2026 and August 2025 using the same CN8 product selection across periods. Country-level shares should be calculated separately by physical weight and customs value, with implied customs unit prices checked for differences in grade and product composition.
CBAM certificate pricing interacts with embedded emissions and free allocation
For imports from covered origins, the published CBAM certificate price for the third quarter of 2026 was €82.32 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. A supplier’s overall cost position is also influenced by embedded emissions in the goods.
The applicable free-allocation adjustment and any qualifying carbon price paid in the country of origin further affect competitiveness. A supplier with lower verified emissions may offer a more competitive overall position even if it charges a higher invoice price, provided the comparison concerns equivalent goods and comparable production conditions.
Downstream expansion could widen future compliance obligations
The EU’s proposed expansion of CBAM to additional downstream products in 2028 remains subject to negotiations. The European Parliament has supported lowering the aluminium threshold from 50 tonnes to five tonnes, along with widening the scope of coverage.
The final provisions will determine which fabricated aluminium products become subject to additional compliance obligations. Assessments therefore need to examine relevant CN classifications against both the existing framework and proposed amendments before estimating what share of the market could become newly exposed.
The 2024 partner structure illustrates why headline figures may not map directly onto exemption status for CBAM-covered imports. Norway, Iceland and Switzerland together represented 28.1% of HS Chapter 76 import value, but this does not establish that the same share of CBAM-covered aluminium imports is exempt because Chapter 76 includes products outside precise CBAM scope and origin can differ between transactions.
The comparison between 2019 and 2024 also supports separating product groups when interpreting customs values alongside physical weight changes. Higher customs values with lower physical weight indicate changes in prices, product mix or both, but aggregate figures cannot distinguish between global aluminium price movements and shifts toward higher-value fabricated products.
A more useful breakdown would examine unwrought aluminium grades, sheet, extrusions and structures separately while comparing equivalent periods and partner-country profiles. For buyers in Germany, Italy and Austria as well as exporters in Serbia and the wider Western Balkans, distinctions include exempt origin, verified low-carbon production, higher-emission covered production and downstream products whose future CBAM status remains uncertain.
The available broad-market statistics show EU dependence on imported aluminium products but do not demonstrate that CBAM has already redistributed aluminium market shares. Establishing such an effect requires product-level trade data alongside verified emissions information and a clear distinction between existing obligations and proposed future coverage.