EU emissions allowance auction prices put the provisional fourth-quarter Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reference at €86.14 per tonne of CO₂ equivalent on 2 November. That level is approximately 4.6% above the European Commission’s official third-quarter certificate price, pointing to higher costs for covered imports and uncertainty for industrial purchasing and financial planning ahead of the first certificate sales in 2027.
The provisional volume-weighted average, calculated from auction prices available on 2 November, was €3.82/tCO₂e above the official third-quarter price of €82.32/tCO₂e. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) primary auction clearing price reached €89.43/tCO₂e on 2 November, higher than the fourth-quarter average recorded so far.
That auction-price trajectory indicates upward pressure on the eventual fourth-quarter CBAM reference, but it does not establish the final figure. The European Commission is scheduled to publish the official fourth-quarter price on 4 January 2027.
CBAM certificate prices are calculated quarterly during 2026 using the volume-weighted average of relevant EU ETS auction results. Weekly certificate pricing begins in 2027. The current signal is a higher provisional carbon-price trajectory, not a newly adopted certificate price or a change to CBAM calculation rules.
The covered imports include iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity. Their financial effects vary substantially by sector and production process, so the provisional price alone does not establish an importer’s final certificate requirement.
For a product with one tonne of chargeable embedded CO₂, a €3.82/tCO₂e increase would represent about €3.82 per tonne of product before other adjustments. Chargeable exposure cannot be determined solely from an installation’s gross emissions: free-allocation adjustments, product benchmarks and eligible carbon-price deductions can materially reduce the actual certificate requirement.
For steel and aluminium suppliers in Serbia and Montenegro, the price trend underlines the value of reliable actual-emissions information rather than unfavourable default values where more accurate data are permitted. Electricity exporters’ exposure depends on the applicable emissions methodology and their eligibility to use actual emissions.
European industrial customers may respond by revising purchasing prices, adding carbon-price adjustment clauses or requiring suppliers to share emissions-related costs. Banks financing importers and industrial traders face potential additional working-capital exposure once certificate purchasing begins.