Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) compliance costs borne by European fertiliser importers may pass through the supply chain to farms, food processors and consumers, with agricultural input prices a potential channel. Farmers are normally neither the importer nor the party filing the CBAM declaration, so the effect would be price transmission rather than a direct customs surcharge.
Trade figures compiled in October 2026 show that products classified under CBAM fertiliser codes generated 8.33 billion euros of extra-EU imports in 2025. In the broad fertiliser group, Russia supplied 4.92 million tonnes to the EU, Egypt 3.75 million tonnes and Algeria 1.82 million tonnes.
Urea trade highlights supply origins
Urea under CN 3102 10 provides a more precise measure of the fertiliser supply chain. Egypt supplied 3.29 million tonnes to the EU in 2025, about 44.3% of extra-EU urea imports by mass. Russia supplied around 1.90 million tonnes and Algeria 1.17 million tonnes.
Emissions and trading conditions shape price effects
The effect on fertiliser prices depends on embedded emissions, the applicable CBAM certificate price, free-allocation adjustments, carbon prices recognised as already paid and competition between suppliers. Nitrogen production uses different energy feeds and manufacturing technologies with materially different emissions intensities, making CBAM data collection particularly valuable.
Before reaching farms, shipments pass through wholesalers, port terminals, agricultural supply companies, blenders and cooperative networks. AGRAVIS Raiffeisen publicly operates fertiliser distribution networks, illustrating the link between supply and final users; its presence in distribution does not establish the origin of any individual shipment.
Contracts and inventory timing also affect price transmission. A trader holding stock bought before an increase in carbon-related purchasing costs may price differently from a competitor buying fresh shipments on the spot market. Assessing exposure requires matching the imported product with the importer of record, an identifiable non-EU production plant and the distribution chain to the farm customer.
The European Commission has separately discussed affordability and tariff measures in connection with fertilisers. Because fertilisers are inputs into food production, potential effects on agricultural input costs are politically sensitive. The commercial question is whether markets see higher input prices, different origins, lower-emissions production or a combination of these outcomes.