Egyptian hot-rolled coil could face a modelled Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) cost of approximately 24 euros per tonne with acceptable verified emissions data, compared with approximately 228 euros using default values, according to an analysis presented in Cairo on 4 November. Nicole Voigt, managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group (BCG), presented the analysis at the 19th Arab Steel Summit.
The model examined Egyptian hot-rolled coil produced through a direct-reduced-iron and electric-arc-furnace route. It estimated a 204 euros per tonne difference between the default-value and verified-data costs, and cited a European reference carbon cost of around 36 euros per tonne for comparable production under its assumptions.
BCG described the figures as scenario estimates, not established customs charges applicable to every Egyptian shipment. The analysis said the gap underlines the commercial importance of installation-level emissions accounting: verified records could improve delivered-price competitiveness for exporters whose actual emissions are significantly below the regulatory default. Voigt’s presentation said final liability depends on the product’s CN classification, relevant emissions, year of import, applicable EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) adjustments and eligible deductions.
Proposed quotas and regional trade
The presentation said the interaction of EU import quotas, tariffs and CBAM was becoming decisive for Middle Eastern and North African steel exporters. Under proposed EU steel tariff-rate quota allocations, more than 60% of historical Egyptian steel exports to the EU could be accommodated, against less than 30% of historical exports from Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates. The modelled quota coverage refers to historical exports under proposed arrangements, not shares of total EU steel imports or evidence of actual 2026 shipment changes.
BCG said the same principles apply to Serbian and Southeast European steelmakers: lower emissions may improve carbon competitiveness, but trade restrictions can prevent producers from converting that advantage into additional EU sales. The presentation said banks assessing industrial investments should consider actual-versus-default emissions sensitivity alongside customs duties, quota access, manufacturing costs and freight. It also highlighted the potential commercial value of independent emissions verification, while noting that carbon efficiency alone would not guarantee access to the European market.