EU importer-mirror data indicate that purchases of Serbian iron and steel under HS72 reached 567 million euros in 2025. The same period is described as one in which suppliers face emissions-linked costs under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), alongside separate steel safeguards. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance projects 89.1 million euros of iron-and-steel CBAM exposure in 2026 under baseline assumptions.
The HS72 figure covers the full iron-and-steel chapter, including goods outside CBAM’s scope, and is not presented as a measure of CBAM-covered imports. A separate EU Commission steel-safeguards regulation published in 2026 cited Serbian shipments in the product categories it examined. Those categories totaled 760,234 tonnes in 2025, up from 657,318 tonnes in 2024.
HS72 trade flows and the safeguard product categories
The safeguard-product basket is described as not identical to CBAM Annex I. It also cannot be added to or substituted for carbon-border import totals. The rules for quota and safeguard costs are calculated under separate legal frameworks, even though they can overlap commercially with emissions exposure for suppliers.
Within the reported trade, flat steel dominates the HS72 breakdown. Poland was the leading reported EU destination for Serbian HS72 products, with purchases of 125 million euros. Czechia followed with 78 million euros, and Hungary recorded 72 million euros, while Italy and Romania also appeared among destinations.
Flat-steel product mix and reported destinations
Hot-rolled non-alloy steel under HS7208 accounted for about 340 million euros of EU imports from Serbia. Coated steel under HS7210 represented about 109 million euros, while cold-rolled products under HS7209 accounted for roughly 55 million euros. The figures are presented as indicating substantial cross-border activity connected to Serbia’s flat-steel industry.
The data do not identify where the steel was transformed or which manufacturer ultimately used it. A coil can move through an EU service centre, be processed into strip or sheet, and then be sold to metal stampers and component makers serving vehicle, machinery, appliance or construction markets. Automotive demand is therefore described as a plausible downstream market, but the figures do not establish supply to a named automaker or identify specific vehicles or machines containing Serbian steel.
CBAM emissions evidence and procurement documentation
A price increase for a commodity-grade flat-steel product can change how importers compare supply sources. Importers may compare Serbian coil with material from another non-EU producer or European stock that has already been processed and complies with EU emissions rules.
The impact on Serbian suppliers is described as not predetermined. Verified actual embedded emissions below default values could reduce the CBAM certificate burden attributable to their imports, while strong traceability, stable yields, documented energy use, and control of precursor data can improve producers’ negotiating position. The legal obligation remains with the EU declarant, and poor emissions evidence may become a de facto market-access disadvantage before the first certificate-surrender date.
For automotive-facing supply chains, the proposed next commercial step is to link procurement records to specific coil grades, CN codes, and producing installations. This would allow processors to compare delivered material costs and carbon exposure using product-level information rather than relying on national customs flows as evidence of an end user. A defensible map of beneficiaries would require invoices, transport records, supply contracts, or voluntary corporate disclosures linking the Serbian mill, EU importer of record, first processing facility, and final buyer.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer