Serbia’s Finance Ministry estimates the country’s economic exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at approximately €140.2 million in 2026. The ministry describes the figure as a projection rather than a tax bill or recorded revenue. It also says CBAM-related costs could influence supplier contracts and access to EU customers.
CBAM applies to specified categories of goods imported into the EU. For 2025, goods matching the relevant carbon-border customs codes accounted for €111.23 billion of extra-EU imports, measured as the border value of goods rather than the value of certificates owed. The total includes imports from exempt source countries, and after excluding those origins about €94.74 billion remains potentially relevant before product-level, importer-level and emissions tests.
EU import codes covering iron, steel and aluminium
Within the 2025 totals covered by the CBAM codes, iron and steel accounted for €60.95 billion of EU imports. Aluminium accounted for €30.34 billion. Serbia is not described as a leading origin across the aggregate, but trade is concentrated in corridors linking Serbian producers and traders with several EU border and manufacturing markets.
The ministry says Serbia’s immediate exposure is narrower than the overall CBAM-covered import picture. It covers metals, electricity and other regulated products shipped from Serbia. The scope therefore extends beyond large producers while remaining tied to specific regulated product flows.
Share of exports within scope and company exposure
More than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within CBAM’s scope, according to the Finance Ministry. Around 1,000 companies exported to the EU in 2025 and could be directly affected by CBAM requirements. The ministry also estimates that more than 3,500 Serbian businesses are linked directly or indirectly to sectors covered by the mechanism.
The ministry links compliance relevance to employment across connected industries. Industries connected to CBAM-covered sectors account for around 4.5% of employment in Serbia, affecting wider manufacturing alongside a limited number of large producers.
Baseline projections through 2029 and 2026 cost components
The Finance Ministry’s baseline scenario places exposure at €161.4 million in 2029, up from approximately €140.2 million in 2026. The ministry’s 2026 estimate includes €89.1 million for steel and iron, €19.5 million for aluminium and €21.8 million for electricity.
The calculations assume a fixed 2025 trade structure, default emissions assumptions and a reference certificate price of €75.36. The ministry states that these figures are projections rather than invoices sent to Serbian companies.
Reporting obligations and how costs can flow through contracts
EU importers and authorised CBAM declarants carry formal reporting responsibilities and certificate obligations under CBAM. Even so, the ministry says commercial costs can be passed back to Serbian mills through discounts or contract clauses, or forwarded to processors, construction suppliers and manufacturers.
The outcome of negotiations is described as depending on whether Serbian plants can document emissions below regulatory defaults, how much free-allocation relief remains, and whether importers can source lower-carbon goods elsewhere. For Serbian steel, metalworking and power businesses, the ministry identifies retaining EU customers as a key commercial test.
Declaration timing and supplier data requirements for shipments in 2026
The first annual declaration required from EU buyers covers imports made in 2026 and must be submitted by the end of that reporting cycle, with certificates surrendered by September 30, 2027. The ministry says suppliers need to provide product classifications, installation-level production data and emissions evidence early enough for importers to price and contract shipments and complete verification work.
The ministry adds that plants unable to provide required information risk losing business even if their actual carbon performance might be competitive. It also states that a lower-carbon production route is commercially useful only if its emissions can be demonstrated, attributed to the correct shipment and accepted through the importer’s declaration process.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer