Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimated the country’s 2026 exposure to the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at €140.2 million. The estimate assigns the largest share to iron and steel. Electricity adds €21.8 million and is subject to different compliance rules, resulting in an exposure mix that differs from the EU-wide pattern of CBAM-coded imports.
For EU imports of CBAM-coded goods in 2025, steel and aluminium together accounted for about 82.1% of the value. Steel imports were valued at €60.95 billion and aluminium at €30.34 billion, compared with a total of €111.23 billion for all CBAM-coded goods. Combined, the two metals were worth €91.29 billion.
The 82.1% figure refers to imports from all non-EU origins, including exempt suppliers. It does not indicate the proportion of Serbian exports covered by CBAM. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance estimates that more than 12% of Serbia’s exports to the EU fall within the mechanism’s scope.
2026 baseline exposure across metals and electricity
In a 2026 baseline assessment, iron and steel account for €89.1 million of Serbia’s estimated CBAM exposure. Electricity is estimated at €21.8 million, followed by aluminium at €19.5 million. Cement and fertilisers make up the remainder.
The cost burden is described as led by steel producers among the covered categories. Electricity is also identified as an important component of Serbia’s trade with the EU. The distribution reflects differences in how industrial products and power-related flows are handled under CBAM.
A separate measure of covered trade is provided through trade composition figures based on 2024 exports. Steel represents 4.5 percentage points of Serbian exports to the EU, aluminium 2.0 points, and electricity 4.7 points. Together, the CBAM-related share is approximately 11.7%, with metals accounting for roughly 56% of that share.
The export figures for Serbia and EU import values use different years and denominators, so they are not interchangeable as annual rankings. The compliance approach also varies by product type, with different rules and commercial considerations for a coated-steel coil sold to a processor versus a megawatt-hour of electricity entering Hungary’s power system.
How plant emissions data and product mapping affect charges
For covered steel items, CBAM charges are not treated as a simple surcharge on invoice value. The calculation depends on a plant’s direct process emissions, its verified production route, eligible input materials, and an EU free-allocation adjustment.
If actual emissions data are unavailable, importers may use regulatory default values. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance has warned that default factors may exceed actual domestic emissions in some cases. This could affect lower-emission installations that cannot substantiate performance with actual data.
The cost for each covered product therefore depends on plant-level emissions and relevant product information tied to that item category. For covered aluminium products under the current framework, the initial emissions scope in 2026 focuses on direct emissions.
Producers may still face commercial pressure to disclose electricity sources and indirect footprints to support customer decarbonisation strategies. A buyer’s preference for low-carbon electricity can extend beyond emissions included in the legal CBAM certificate calculation, and these elements should not be conflated in pricing.
Competitive position and Serbia’s stated policy priorities
Serbian producers compete with suppliers from China, Türkiye, and India, as well as lower-carbon plants inside the EU. Customer retention is described as depending on actual emissions, data assurance, and product economics for the relevant CN8 code rather than on an EU-wide metals share alone.
The immediate policy priorities identified for Serbia include establishing a credible plant-level steel emissions baseline. The other priorities are mapping mill products accurately to EU customs codes and treating electricity trade separately.
The priorities are presented as reflecting distinct requirements for industrial products compared with power exports rather than a single approach covering all aspects of Serbia’s CBAM exposure.
Elevated by CBAM.Clarion Engineer